oh shit .. 05:15 in the morning
just spend a night researching #US #consumer houshold #debt, without noticing
at least you can profit of my stupidity because I'm telling now that the world is clearly headed into a 2008 style global #EconomicCrisis
epicenter will again be the #USA
this time it isn't going to be just a #mortage default crisis but a everything default (#AutoLoans, #CreditCard, #StudentDebt, ..)
and the trigger is #tariffs & #doge adding to an already financially hurting nation
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BerlinFokus
Als Antwort auf BerlinFokus • • •and remember:
all the above #consumer #debts are "securitized" .. meaning they are spread around everywhere in the #FinancialMarkets
just like 2008
😬
OutOfSpace
Als Antwort auf BerlinFokus • • •BerlinFokus
Als Antwort auf OutOfSpace • • •The most interesting part is how the whole thing has been hidden in plain sight.
#ConsumerCredit reached an all time high under the #Biden/ #Harris administration in the #USA. And while they tried to mitigate that somewhat by for instance restructuring programs for #StudentLoans, the double #burden of stagnating #wages and rising #inflation has pushed many households over the edge.
Now #Trump is adding way more inflation to the mix & laying off tens of thousands of govt #workers.
BerlinFokus hat dies geteilt.
OutOfSpace
Als Antwort auf BerlinFokus • • •BerlinFokus hat dies geteilt.
BerlinFokus
Als Antwort auf OutOfSpace • • •Yep.
50% of US #consumtion (vulgo: #shopping) is already done by only the upper 10% ..
🎩
BerlinFokus
Als Antwort auf BerlinFokus • • •All I can tell you is that this is like a super-vulcano ready to blow up ANY time.
What I can't tell you though is, how far the #risk has already spread through the #GlobalEconomy.
Have, for instance, European #Banks again been bying up mixed risk #securities from the #US like hell, or has their past experience made them more careful ?
I don't know.
Maby the @EUCommission , @ecb can tell us all more about this ?!
🧐 🇺🇸〽️ 🏚🔥
BerlinFokus hat dies geteilt.
BerlinFokus
Als Antwort auf BerlinFokus • • •@OutOfSpace
Forgot to mention at least one important caveat.
To some analysts current data doesn't suggest an inflationary pressure as a result of the #Trump #tariffs but, given the sorry state of the #US #economy right now, rather a #MarginSqueeze with (more) #layoffs & mass #bankruptcy as a result.
That of course would not be helpful at all, meaning a jump from the frying pan into the fire.
Others even foresee a #stagflation, combining the worst of two worlds.
Anyway, change will come. 🌎
OutOfSpace
Als Antwort auf BerlinFokus • • •BerlinFokus hat dies geteilt.
BerlinFokus
Als Antwort auf OutOfSpace • • •🤷♀️ 🤔❓️ I don't have an answer to that. Only a personal opinion.
I believe that the #Trump #Junta wants to put the "bottom" 90% of the #US population into economic pain. For a variety of reasons. Some are outright #evil, some more connected to the general #macroeconomic situation of the #USA.
What they WANT is a managed #recession they can handle.
What (at least as I project this) they are instead GOING TO GET is a #FreeFall off a cliff.
I think they miscalculated badly here.
🙂↕️
BerlinFokus hat dies geteilt.
OutOfSpace
Als Antwort auf BerlinFokus • • •